January, 2009 - Dr. Sugiyama published a software review in the Spring 2008 issue of the journal Foresight, entitled “Monte Carlo Simulation/Risk Analysis on a Spreadsheet: Review of Three Software Packages.”
Dr. Sugiyama published a software review in the Spring 2008 issue of the journal Foresight, entitled “Monte Carlo Simulation/Risk Analysis on a Spreadsheet: Review of Three Software Packages.” The three software packages are: Risk Solver, Crystal Ball and @RISK.
The pleasant surprise to me was the discovery that a significant leap had occurred in the development of the risk software with the development of Risk Solver. Frontline Systems, Inc., is the developer of Risk Solver. The makers of Solver, an add-in to Excel since the 1990s, these developers know, in depth, how Excel performs its calculations, and so have used this knowledge to create the reliable, fastest risk analysis tool on the market. In addition, they implemented a design to prevent unwise model implementations, such as invalid correlational structures and circular references generated by simulation outcomes. There is much more, but you may wish to download a trial version and see for yourself.
Since my review, the software has advanced significantly. (The most advanced version is called Risk Solver Platform.) With these enhancements, Risk Solver leaves the competition far behind. In addition, Risk Solver is easy to learn and use. The challenge, as with any risk software, is to know how to use the tool correctly. To assist in this regard, I am in the process of writing a User Guide for Risk Solver Platform.
I strongly recommend only Risk Solver, as its competitors are poor substitutes.
January, 2009 - EC RISK USA & EUROPE, LLC, offers risk
analysis services for project cost and schedule assessment.
EC RISK USA & EUROPE, LLC, offers risk analysis
services for project cost and schedule assessment. We are
currently engaged by the Washington State Department of
Transportation to evaluate risk for selected projects. The
services include:
- Conducting risk elicitation workshops whereby we work
with subject matter experts to identify, describe, and
quantify key project cost and schedule risks.
- Develop the risk analysis and provide a listing of
those key risks that are "candidates for mitigation."
- Produce a focused report of findings and recommendations.
February 14, 2007 - Dr. Sam Sugiyama has published an article
in the February issue of the journal Foresight, entitled "Forecast
Uncertainty and Monte Carlo Simulation."
The preview to the article reads:
"Sam Sugiyama has written a primer on the use of
Monte Carlo Simulation to assess forecast error. His simple
illustrative example and description of the steps in the MCS
procedure provide a non-technical overview of this fascinating
approach to the evaluation of uncertainty in forecasts. For
regression modelers specifically, Sam shows how MCS can be used
to develop more realistic prediction intervals than the theoretical
PIs found in books and software."
September 28, 2005 - Dr. Sam Sugiyama presented a 75 minute
session titled "Monte Carlo Simulation and Forecasting," at the
Forecasting Summit 2005 conference in Boston, MA, September 27-28.
Monte Carlo Simulation and Forecasting Abstract:
Financial analysis of the uncertain future is increasingly
performed using Monte Carlo simulation software and Excel to
capture variation in an organization's bottom-line. This session
discusses what Monte Carlo simulation is, why it should be used
and the role forecasting plays. Principles for construction
of ad hoc Monte Carlo simulation forecasting components from
any of the following forecasts are presented-ad hoc forecasts,
time series forecasts and dynamic regression forecasts. The
session also provides a road map for performing risk analysis
using Monte Carlo simulation.
April 11, 2005 - A New Other Resources page for complementary
risk analysis/forecasting resources provided by others.
We are now recommending software and services that we have found
matches our requirement for product and service quality. Visit
the page and follow the links to the corresponding websites.
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Consulting Services
